There was a surprise uptick in single-family home sales in October, with sales up 5% with 159 sales, which is a high number historically for October, minus 2020 and 2021 during COVID. Year-to-date, sales are down 14% compared to 2022, slightly better than most of this year. In addition to a surprise increase in total sales, there was a surprise in the various market segments. Sales of homes sold between $350k to $750k had a sales increase of 52%. This segment of the market has lagged most of 2023 as a result of increased mortgage rates. At the same time, sales in the previously mentioned market segment increased, and the number of homes that sold at $349k and below dropped 13% in October.
The median and average price both increased 5% in October, with the median at $306,500 and the average at $348,290. The average sold price in Columbia did decline 2.5% last month to $351,337, while the median increased 1.7% to $313,000. A 2.5% decline in the average price for Columbia isn’t concerning after the average price from October 2021 to 2022 jumped over 25%.
Average days on the market remained even from last year to 28 days, which is still very low historically for October. Since August, days on the market have become more stabilized, and the market hasn’t experienced significant increases from the previous year.
With the increase in sales for October, the months’ supply of inventory fell 1% last month to 2.41, even with a 7% increase in active listings. The previous average of the prior ten years has been 4.16 months’ worth of inventory. Active listings were up this year, but new listings in October were down over 5%.
Pending listings were up for the third time this year with an increase of 1%, and showings in October were up 4%.
Building permits for Columbia, Ashland, and Boone County were up 77% in October, with a massive increase in the City of Columbia, up 190%, going from 11 single-family permits to 32 this October. Ashland also saw a large increase from 4 permits last year to 9 this year. Overall, building permits for single-family homes are still down 10%, but October permits greatly improved the yearend total.
Mortgage rates in October climbed most of the month, with a 30 Yr. FRM hitting over 8%. Since the end of October, mortgage rates have seen a steep drop, down to around 7.3% most of the second half of November.
For the first three weeks of November, sales are down 3.5%, the average price is up 11%, and the median price is up 8%, with showings in line with last year.
The market conditions in October were ideal for a fall housing market, especially considering the steep climb in interest rates from late August through the end of October. The number of sales and prices were up modest percentages compared to the swings the market has experienced most of this year. In addition, there were sales increases in market segments that have struggled most of the year. The only issue in October was the market segment for first-time buyers, which underperformed in October but has been the strongest segment for most of 2022. However, this could’ve been the result of high mortgage rates over the past eight weeks, and now, with rates receding, this segment could pick back up at the start of 2024.
SOURCE – COLUMBIA BOARD OF REALTORS CEO, BRIAN TOOHEY, MBA, RCE, EPRO
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