Unsurprisingly, based on the number of pending (homes under contract) listings in the previous months of 2023, single-family home sales in Boone County were down 31% to 138 homes compared to April 2023. Sales in the City of Columbia were down over 40% from last year to just 83 sales. Sales for April haven’t been this low since 2011, although for 2023, sales are still 30% higher compared to the first four months of 2011.
Amazingly, even with a dramatic drop in sales, prices are still up year over year. The average price in Boone County was up 4% to $350,046, and the median price was up 4% to $310,000. Homes in the City of Columbia, which saw a more significant drop in sales, produced an average price increase of 8% to $379,782 and a median price jump 5.5% to $325,000.
Average days on market (DOM) continue to increase, up 160% to 39 days, but days on market last April was only 15 days, and the average DOM for April in the previous ten years has been 49 days.
Supply continues to increase, up 132% to 2.04 months worth of inventory, compared to last April, but we are still half a month below the amount of inventory for April for the past ten years. Supply continues to be hindered by a lack of new listings hitting the market, down 31% last month to 234, which is even below early COVID numbers.
Mortgage rates for a 30-yr FRM (fixed rate mortgage) did increase half a percent during April to 6.59%, according to Mortgage News Daily. However, since the Federal Government nears a possible default because of the debt ceiling, rates for the 30-yr FRM have risen to nearly 7%. As the debt limit draws closer to June 1st, rates should continue to grow, and if the U.S. defaults on its debt obligations, there’s no guess how high the yield on a US 10-year Treasury will jump, taking mortgage rates along for the ride.
New single-family detached building permits combined in the Ashland, Columbia, & Boone were down 28% in April, bringing permits down 16% for the year. Permits in Columbia are down 23% year to date.
Current market prices are surprisingly resilient when factoring in sales declining 11 of the last 12 months. With mortgage rates around 7% again, and the potential to go higher, existing homeowners who require financing to purchase another home have few reasons to sell and take on a new mortgage rate more than double what they currently have. With little motivation to sell a home right now, the low number of new listings hitting the market and a reduction in new construction will continue to deflate inventory numbers and push prices higher, but at a slower pace than we saw from 2020 to 2022.
SOURCE – COLUMBIA BOARD OF REALTORS CEO, BRIAN TOOHEY, MBA, RCE, EPRO
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