Home sales in October matched last year at 157 homes. Year-to-date, sales have increased by nearly 6%, driven by an 8.5% lift in existing home sales, while sales of new construction homes have fallen by almost 7% for the year.
Prices rose slightly last month, with the median price increasing by 0.32% to $312,000. However, prices in the City of Columbia dropped 5% to $307,675 and are down less than half a percent for the year so far.
Cumulative days on market increased by 33% to an average of 44 days. This marks the highest level for October in five years but remains well below the pre-COVID October average of 85 days.
Pending listings were up 31% to 189 as buyers took advantage of declining mortgage rates. This is a big bounce back from the 19% drop in pending listings last month and should indicate the market will see a year-over-year increase in sales of about 4 to 6% at the end of the year.
The trend of rising inventory continued in October, with 537 active listings on the market during the month, an increase of 18.5%. This is the third consecutive month with active single-family listings above 500, a level not seen since December 2019. Before Covid, the 10-year average of active listings was 842, so the market still lags well behind that amount. There was an unexpected dip in new listings by 4%. New listings had increased almost every month this year.
With the increase in active listings, the months supply of homes on the market rose nearly 8% to 3.11 months. This isn’t the first time months of inventory has been above 3 months in the past five years, but it’s the first time for October. Based on other market data, this isn’t a surprise or a concern. There remains a divided market based on supply levels. Homes under $450K have an average inventory of 2.22 months, indicating a “seller’s market.” However, inventory levels between $300K and $450K are starting to rise, yet still favor sellers. Homes priced above $450K tell a different story. The average months of inventory above $450K is 7.39 months, showing a clear advantage for buyers. This is especially true for homes priced at $1 million or more, where inventory has continued to grow each month since April, and is now above 8.5 months.
Building permits continue to lag behind last year and are expected to end the year down about 15%. However, permits increased 16% in 2024, making the overall impact a wash, but it indicates stagnant growth in single-family home construction for Boone County. There was a possibility of a surge in permits in Columbia due to a building code change this year, but the city postponed adopting the 2024 code until at least February 2026.
One unusual market data point attracting national attention is the number of unsold listings, or sellers who are taking their homes off the market. Unsold listings in Boone County were up almost 27% in October, and the number tends to grow towards the end of the year, but it’s still within the normal range when looking at market data back to 2016.
The real estate market in Boone County appears stable. Price appreciation continues to slow as more existing homeowners become willing to list their homes, providing buyers more options when shopping for a home. Sellers at the higher end of the market, facing increased competition, should set a realistic price for their home rather than trying to chase an extra $20K to $50K “to see what happens,” to take advantage of lower interest rates while they can. Unfortunately, first-time buyers continue to struggle with low inventory and rising home prices, especially if Columbia moves forward with the 2024 Energy Code in the coming months.
SOURCE – COLUMBIA BOARD OF REALTORS CEO, BRIAN TOOHEY, MBA, RCE, EPRO
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